Complexity Premia

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets.If this recording contains reference to any financial products, that reference does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation, and may not be relied upon. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC’s MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.

Episode 65: Musk–Trump Fallout; RBA to Continue Cutting Rates; Portfolio Performance
Jun 10, 2025 – 22:35
Episode 64: Hedging April Trade War Chaos; Buying $4bn After Bad News Became Priced; Biggest Opportunities Ahead
May 12, 2025 – 17:57
Episode 63: Trump’s Tariffs & How the Trade War Will Hit Australia – Guest Appearance on Straight Talk with Mark Bouris
Apr 9, 2025 – 59:37
Episode 62: Trump’s Tariff Plans; US Fiscal Risks; RBA’s Evolving Rate Outlook; January Returns
Feb 27, 2025 – 29:28
Episode 61: Outlook for 2025; Performance Over Last Year; Trumpian Regime Change; Addressing the Big Questions
Jan 21, 2025 – 25:00
Episode 60: Hybrid Market Dies; RBA Wants to Cut Rates; Portfolio Performance; Australia's Profound Productivity Puzzle
Dec 11, 2024 – 25:52
Episode 59: What Trump Means for Portfolios; Inflation; Interest Rates; and Recent Performance
Nov 13, 2024 – 21:55
Episode 58: September Performance; US Economic Strength; Long-Term Interest Rate Moves; APRA Increases Bank Leverage; Trading Regulatory Risk
Oct 9, 2024 – 21:18
Episode 57: Great Public vs Private Credit Debate; Killer vs Gorilla; Is Private Credit the Next Sub-Prime Crisis; APRA Tries to Kill Hybrid Market…
Sep 12, 2024 – 21:58
Episode 56: $80m Record Home Sale; Is Public Spending Driving Inflation; Reaccelerating in 2025; Dictators vs Democracy; Neo-Socialism
Aug 29, 2024 – 12:49
Episode 55: Volatility Shock; Bond Market Performance; RBA Jawboning; Arrogant Aussies
Aug 20, 2024 – 26:30
Episode 54: What a Trump Presidency means for Inflation, Interest rates, Asset Prices & Geo-Politics
Jul 24, 2024 – 16:26
Episode 53: Episode 53: Will Fed Cut Rates In September; Sahm Rule Implies US Recession Coming; Why PIMCO Says Private Credit Unattractive; And Best Performing Asset-Classes in 2024
Jul 15, 2024 – 22:55
Episode 52: Sovereign Debt Crises are Back; France on the Brink; Aussie States Out of Control; Inflation Numbers Key to Asset Prices
Jun 26, 2024 – 13:56
Episode 51: Zombies Drop Like Flies; Default Cycle Erupts; French Bonds Implode; Fiscal Policy Swamps Monetary Policy; May Returns
Jun 17, 2024 – 24:29
Episode 50: Stagflation; Kiwi Independence; Private Credit LIT; and the New Sub Debt ETF (BSUB)
May 27, 2024 – 15:09
Episode 49: Central Banks Bowing to Politicians; Budget Deficits Powering Inflation; Portfolio Performance
May 20, 2024 – 12:50
Episode 48: April Returns; RBA Struggles with Credibility Crisis; All Eyes on US CPI
May 13, 2024 – 17:14
Episode 47: Flash Podcast; Death of Central Bank Independence; Monetary Mandarins Captive to Political Masters
May 7, 2024 – 17:22
Episode 46: Punchy Podcast; Aussie & US Inflation Surge; Stock Jockeys on Precipice
Apr 30, 2024 – 12:29
Episode 45: Punchy Flash Podcast; Global Inflation Surge; What it Means for Asset Prices
Apr 24, 2024 – 11:41
Episode 44: The Reacceleration of Inflation; What this Means for Equities & Bonds; Portfolio Outlook; Credit Rating Upgrades for Banks; the Conundrum if we get Immaculate Disinflation and CCI is wrong
Apr 9, 2024 – 23:49
Episode 43; Existential Investment Questions for 2024; Asset-Allocation Shifts; Stubborn Services Inflation; Interest Rate Risks; Asset-Class Performance
Feb 29, 2024 – 29:32
Episode 42: Returns in 2023; Outlook for 2024; Markets Priced for Perfection; Key Latent Risks; Capital Structure Relative Value
Jan 10, 2024 – 25:55
Episode 41: Government Bond Yields Hit 5%; Buying Bank Bonds Yielding 7.5%; Why Fixed-Rate Bond Duration is Attractive; Fed Makes the RBA Look Like Sleepy Hollow
Nov 14, 2023 – 30:23
Episode 40: Bond Yields Increase Further; New Hybrids; Credit Suisse Reflections; and Optimal Asset-Allocation
Sep 27, 2023 – 52:06
Episode 39: Commercial Property in Crisis; Default Cycle Ramps Up; Non-Banks Under Pump; Bond Market Performance; Optimal Asset-Allocation; Best Trade Ideas; Sticky Inflation and Rates
Aug 21, 2023 – 54:36
Episode 38: Winners and Losers in FY23; Best Returns for FY24; Are Rate Hikes Coming to an End; Prepare for a Persistent Pain Trade; Bonds vs Equities
Jul 11, 2023 – 52:31
Episode 37: Silicon Valley Bank; Credit Suisse; the Transfer of Wealth from Equity to Debt; Aussie Banks win in Flight to Quality; Default Cycle Ramps Up; Consumer Buffers; Best Trades and more
Apr 27, 2023 – 56:03
Episode 36: The Coming Recession and Monster Default Cycle; why Illiquidity is Concealing Huge Risks; the Rise of Risk-free Yield and what it Means for Asset-Allocation
Mar 7, 2023 – 24:53
Episode 35: The RBA’s sledgehammer is yet to fall; Bank bonds paying 6.75% pa; Riskier asset-classes to get hosed
Feb 13, 2023 – 31:26
Episode 34: Reflections on 2022 and Outlook for 2023
Jan 17, 2023 – 21:16
Episode 33: Global Recession in 2023; Housing Hammered; Equities Risks; & Bond Market Opportunities
Dec 12, 2022 – 20:52
Episode 32: Hunting Zombie Companies; the Next Sub-Prime Crisis in High-Yield Debt; the Outlook for Interest Rates; and the Aussie Housing Crash Accelerates
Sep 14, 2022 – 21:59
Episode 31: US Recession; Bond Markets Bounce; Record Aussie Housing Correction; Opportunities Emerge
Aug 8, 2022 – 27:42
Episode 30: How March 2022 officially became the worst month in history for the Aussie bond market.
Apr 7, 2022 – 27:13
Episode 29: Whether Crypto is the 21st century Tulip Bulb Bubble?
Feb 21, 2022 – 15:26
Episode 28: Looking ahead into 2022; Trajectory for inflation, rates and asset prices; NSW slashes debt issuance by $20bn; Machines entering bond market
Jan 16, 2022 – 38:54
Episode 27: House prices falling 20% if rates rise; Forecasting global wars; RBA vs bond bandits; October performance
Nov 7, 2021 – 42:01
Episode 26: Inflationary headwinds for duration/equities, ESG Activism, Evergrande, APRA closing $139bn CLF, RBA QE3
Oct 11, 2021 – 35:09
Episode 25: Forecasting Australian Herd Immunity; Vaccines Hitting 91% Adult Coverage; Borders Re-Opening in 2022; And Why the Strong Jobs Data is Not What it Seems...
Jun 22, 2021 – 26:25
Episode 24: Forecasting the Aussie Housing Boom
Apr 30, 2021 – 25:28
Episode 23: Housing Affordability Non-Crisis; Bond Market Rebound; March Performance; Bank Liquidity Issues; RBA’s QE3 Program; Credit Markets; & Budget Deficits
Apr 11, 2021 – 24:53
Episode 22: The Bond Market Bloodbath; February Returns; RBA QE 3.0 and 4.0; & How the RBA’s Governor Phil Lowe Brutally Blew-Up the Bond Bandits…
Mar 14, 2021 – 26:38
Episode 21: January Returns; RBA QE 1.0, 2.0, 3,0 and 4.0; WWIII; House Bubble Non-Issue; and the Reddit Rambo’s Retail Revolution
Feb 7, 2021 – 31:25
Episode 20: 2020 in Review; Outlook for 2021; Housing Forecasts; Big Left and Right Tail Risks & More
Jan 6, 2021 – 39:57
Episode 19: Traders vs Investors; Why Markets are Ignoring Second Waves; Central Banks Disintermediating Markets; Performance; and Turning Beta into Alpha
Aug 25, 2020 – 28:34
Episode 18: The Next Big Pivot Point for Markets – COVID-19 Vaccines; June Performance; Liquidity in Bond Markets; NAB’s Landmark Unlisted Hybrid Deal; And More
Jul 17, 2020 – 28:21
Episode 17: Mean-Reversion; Don’t Fight the Fed; Aussie Housing; Best Investment Opportunities; Cold War 2.0
Jun 23, 2020 – 25:04
Episode 16: Impact of Covid-19 on Markets, Future Risks Including US-China Relations, Global Debt Crises, EU Disintegration and Aussie Housing
May 13, 2020 – 42:58